A Dynamic Model of Child Physical Development
In March 2018, staff at Mgmtlaboratory.com, embarked on a project to develop a computer simulation model of the negative effect of maltreatment on the development of an infant and of natural resiliency aided by intervention. The first task adopted by the research group was to develop a computer model of a child’s physical development that would be subjected to the effects of maltreatment and intervention. As an update to the research, the computer model is complete. The model simulates the physical growth of a human male from birth to age 20. The tasks goal was to assure that the early childhood segment of the model’s graph resembles the 50th percentile graph of the CDC’s Infant Growth Chart. Changes in parameters were made until both graphs were reasonably close for use in the research. The graph by the dynamic computer model correlated to the CDC graph with R2 = 0.94. This project was inspired by the Fitch and Jagolino study of 2012 (1).
Model development was performed on Vensim PLE Plus (2) simulation software. The main process was the growth of the human body’s structural dimensions. At any point in time after birth, there exist current measurements of the growing body. The process continues as these measurements are reconciled with those encompassing the human physical growth potential. The comparison with the growth template determines the degree of growth tendency or the amount of growth in the next period of a month in the model. As measurements approach the maximum potential, growth tendency slows growth and eventually stops the process. At any point during the growth process, body mass fills the structure giving a corresponding weight of the body in pounds. Care was made such that development curve generated by the model had similarity to the CDC Infant Growth Chart. A simple regression analysis between these two variables gave a satisfactory R2 of 94%.
With the completion of the first task in the development of the simulation model the research team will proceed to modeling how various external stimuli affect a child’s physical growth. This project’s first phase will be completed with validation of model behavior in comparison to design. In the second phase, the research team will seek participation by practitioners in the child services field in associating model performance with actual results. We at mgmtlaboratory.com are optimistic that the computer simulation model under development will be useful in training child services staff, in the improvement of assessment tools and in service delivery research.
By Mgmtlaboratory.com staff and contributing consultants, 2018
Fitch, D. and Jagolino, N. C., “Examining Organizational Functioning Through the Lens of Complexity Theory Using System Dynamics Modeling.” Journal of Social Service Research, 2012.
A simulation software by Ventana Systems, Inc.