Upper Midwest Social Services - A Case Study
This case study demonstrates the use of system dynamics computer modeling in planning. Upper Midwest is a hypothetical public service organization that seeks to match the diversity of its direct service employees to their clients. Discussions with Phen Lo, German Alvarado and Brent Holt in 2014, inspired me to write this case scenario.
Upper Midwest Social Services is a hypothetical human services organization with a social service staff of 2,000. While in his office, Administrator Ernesto Gumban handed Sheila Marcello, corporate planning manager, a copy of Upper Midwest’s diversity and inclusion strategy. “Sheila, the strategy spearheaded by Paige is aggressive, but the Board understood the need to match our client’s cultural mix in order for us to deliver high level quality services. Diversity and Inclusion Manager Paige Stephenson provided leadership during the past five years towards getting the strategic plan into the form that was presented to Upper Midwest’s Board. She spent countless hours studying best practices across the country as well as analyzing results from decision groups and surveys. HR projected losing 400 FTE's due to normal attrition over the next three years. We can backfill these with diverse cultures to get to our target of 40% diversity since we are now at 400 diverse FTE's.”
"Ernie," Sheila interjected, “I know there are several ideas we will be considering before we feel comfortable with the strategic plan, so I will get one of my analysts, Chad O’Malley, to make a computer model so we can make what-if scenarios and get quick results. I gathered from Paige’s talk that staff additions do not necessarily give us additional intercultural capacity. I think she meant that for the next three plan years, new hires will have to be oriented along with incumbent staff, to the organization’s diversity values, strategy and practice. If you have half an hour tomorrow, Chad can show you and me initial runs with the strategic planning model.”
“That will be great. I'll have time tomorrow afternoon,” answered Ernie.
The next day, Ernie and Sheila entered the meeting room. “Good afternoon, Sheila, Ernie,” Chad remarked as he began his presentation. “Shown here are two staff growth scenarios I will call moderate growth and slow growth. The moderate growth plan will allow us to reach 90% of the 800 FTE goal in 14 months while the slow growth plan will get us to the same level in 27 months. The reason why the curves are not in the shape of a hockey stick is that the model considers the reality that with time, the hiring process becomes increasingly burdened. I'd like to mention at this time that I was able to place a module in the model that deals with training for intercultural capacity. I will be using the moderate plan so that those in strategic plan group modeling may clearly observe the dynamics of hiring-training-intercultural capacity. The moderate growth curve quantifies into the following base strategic plan.”
Chad continued his short presentation. “We all know the importance of operational training to maintain the high level of quality service delivery. We also know how training delays the complete assimilation of new staff in the workplace. Moreover, without incorporating cultural competence in the training program, the hiring plan will fall short of its diversity objective. The next graph illustrates the delaying effect of the usual operational training. The ‘Plan’ with training set to three months became the ‘Worst Case Scenario’ curve, while the plan with training set to six months became the ‘Worst Case Scenario’ curve. All of these while not exceeding the 2,000 FTE staff complement at any one time. With cultural competence content, training now not only addresses operational skill sets but also makes intercultural capacity increase in pace of diverse staff hiring.
The Diversity Planning Model
Chad O’Malley used the Vensimtm system dynamics software to quickly build the computer model of a diversity plan illustrated below. He first developed loop 1: hiring rate > Staff in Training > graduation rate > Diversity > comparing results to strategic plan > adjustment to hiring of diversity. This is a managed or goal seeking feedback loop where variance of results from plan causes adjustment to the normal hiring rate. Feedback loop 2 simulates the growth in the organization’s intercultural capacity resulting from the addition of cultural competence content in training. As loop 1 this is a balancing or goal seeking part of the model. Feedback loop 3 incorporates the amount of inter-culturalism as a function of amount of training. As graduation rate increases and training is reduced, correspondingly, intercultural capacity diminishes. The natural flexibility of the model lends itself as a tool for group modeling sessions.
By Noel Jagolino, Contributing Management Consultant